As Delicate As The Cherry Blossom

The cherry blossom is the national flower of Japan and has been celebrated in song and literature for centuries. From the end of March through the beginning of April, the blossoms burst into existence and engulf the country in a floral tsunami that rolls from the southernmost corner of Kyushu to the northernmost reaches of Hokkaido. And then, in what seems like the blink of an eye, all traces of them are gone. Now you see them, now you don’t. And in the Japanese way of thinking, as it is with the cherry blossom, so it is with fame, fortune and human life. I could not help but think about this when reading a recent issue of Forbes where it was reported that the nation of India now has more billionaires than Japan. That gave me pause. Was it not too long ago that we were being warned that Japan was an unstoppable economic Godzilla bent on gobbling up the U.S. and the rest of the world as well? Is it possible that the Japanese century has ended barely a few years after its beginning? And if it has, are we now to be concerned that India will be the new economic behemoth on the world stage, rolling over and conquering all?

There certainly are those who would have us believe so. Whether it is in the pages of the recent bestseller, “The Earth Is Flat” or in the Wall Street Journal, there has been a rising drumbeat that is reminiscent of the Japan-as-number-one craze that swept through the U.S. media in the 70’s and 80’s. Jobs are being outsourced to India. And there is no doubt its economy is on the upswing. Hardly a day goes by without an announcement of some new business deal or technological success that involves an Indian company or business tycoon. In such an environment, it is easy to be drawn into the myth of India’s inevitable rise to economic superpower status.

However, if we take a moment to step back and look at things from a perspective other than that offered by the hype and sensationalistic claptrap that has too often become the standard in much of today’s media, we can see that it is far too early to declare victory for any country. There is a mistake that most people make when they envision the future. Instead of thinking of it as tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, they tend to think of it as today version 2.0. And such linear thinking leads down the wrong path. After all, which of the so called expert futurists predicted the collapse of the Berlin Wall and Soviet Union? How many people at the end of World War II predicted that Germany and Japan would rise to become as economically successful as they have? Did the British ever imagine it possible that a savage, unsophisticated continent like North America could give rise to a nation of the power and influence of the U.S.? And had they any expectation that the penal colony they started at Botany Bay would lead to a nation as comfortable, beautiful and successful as Australia? India has split once. Might it not do so again? Is it really impossible to imagine that other divisions not yet suspected might assert themselves and shatter the national fabric of the subcontinent?

The road between the present and the future is rarely a straight one. And it is almost never smooth. Even if a nation does achieve economic greatness, it is not a permanent condition. No disrespect to the people of India or those who trumpet that country’s achievements, but the only thing that is inevitable is change. And the future always holds more possibilities than we imagine or dare to imagine.